Turning Points

 

I get the sense that the world cannot sustain the amount of people we have at the standard of living that they expect.  I get the sense that all of the global challenges that are beginning to come to a head – climate change, mass migration, environmental degradation, are caused by third world nations moving towards first world standards of living.  Perhaps the world can sustain the consumer driven culture that the west enjoys with its massive consumption of resources and the incredible detritus of its waste.  But it can only do so if that culture is contained within the confines of the west.  As billions of people demand the same kind of standard of living that the west enjoys, concurrent resource consumption and the accompanying pollution and environmental waste, explode to unsustainable levels.

The west will continue to demand its current standard of living even as the third world demands it also.  And if the third world cannot get it in the places where they live, they journey to the west to partake of its luxuries.  Mass migrations in Europe and North America are stark testament to the hardships that people will endure to secure the prosperity that the west enjoys.  And who could blame them.  But when you consider how dangerous these migrations are, you get insight into the depth of their commitment.  They will not be easily, or humanely, stopped.  A brief look at history easily reveals what happens in the face of such resource competition – blood, tears, and pain.  And there is no reason to believe that our current situation will end differently. 

The impression I get is that the elites believe they need to figure out a way to provide a similar standard of living to the third world in a sustainable way, or reduce the standard of living in the west to levels that are sustainable.  I don’t get the sense that the west will go into that dark night willingly.  The rise of nationalism in the west is the logical outcome of the degradation of its standard of living.  Indeed, we have seen some hints at what happens when we go down this road.  Globalization and the outsourcing of good jobs that sustained a ‘western’ lifestyle have led to political polarization and the growth of distinctly nationalistic political movements.  And again, who could blame people.  In their view, the life they envisioned was sent away.  Jobs that allowed relatively uneducated people to live a life of dignity disappeared.  They will fight tooth and nail to maintain what little they have left.

Another approach is to innovate technologies that can provide the third world with a similar standard of living.  The thinking is that green energy and other sustainable practices may allow us to build standards of living in the third world that bypass the pollution and environmental degradation that such standards of living have traditionally engendered.  This is the great bet that the world is making - this is the Great Reset.  But I get the sense that the pace of change in this regard is simply not fast enough.  And in the absence of such technological innovation, the degradation of western living standards continues.  And so, we are back to the preceding paragraph.  Hardening resistance to decreased western living standards and commensurate political polarization and nationalism.

The response of the elite as they try to navigate these dynamics is predictable.  Media and Big Tech have dedicated enormous resources to stifle dissent and sever dialogue.  Perfectly relevant topics are off-limits to mention or talk about in any meaningful way.  Their objective, of course, is to ensure that those who will fight to retain their standard of living are marginalized and do not have a voice.  They recognize the great danger is that those who stand to lose in this game join together into a meaningful resistance.  The elite response to Trump is a case study.  No matter what one thinks of Trump, he was not on board with degrading the standard of living of Americans.  His rejection of trade deals, mass migration, climate agreements, and by generally putting ‘America First’ represented an existential danger to their plans.  Even more, he rallied many Americans to the idea that things don’t have to be this way.  There was suddenly a President who openly spoke of what everyone suspected all along.  That the power centers are not on their side; that they are purposely creating conditions that fundamentally erode the prospects of average Americans.

The elite response to Trump’s message was instructive.  It was shock and awe.  Every institution was brought to bear in a four-year orgy of disinformation, propaganda, and lawsuits to ensure that his message would die as quickly as possible.  The phrase, ‘methinks you doth protest too much!’ comes to mind.  If he wasn’t onto something, they wouldn’t have mobilized every asset they had to destroy the message.  Indeed, their reaction was so overwhelming that it quickly became apparent that the suspicions of Trump supporters were correct.  The system is indeed rigged against Americans.  In fact, it is rigged against the whole western edifice.

If I had to guess, these trends will continue.  The elite will continue to try to build global sustainability as they manage the decline of the West.  Populism and nationalism will continue to grow as the plebes resist their efforts.  The elite will continue to double-down using the tools they have at their disposal to ensure people cannot effectively organize a meaningful resistance.  All information outlets - media and academia, Big Tech and communications will censor, cancel, regulate speech and use disinformation to confuse and obfuscate.  Canards such as racism and critical race theory will continue to be promoted to ensure that poor minorities and poor white people will not recognize that they are actually on the same side and fighting the same enemy.

In the meantime, western governments recognize that they cannot allow the slide to continue too quickly.  They know that a great depression kind of event could topple the whole edifice.  Pitch forks in the streets are not useful.  The 1/6 Capitol riots are a first look at what could happen.  This event terrified them.  And you can clearly see their terror in their reaction to it.  Contrast reactions to the BLM riots and their actual damage, death and mayhem to the relatively minor actions at the Capitol.  BLM riots are useful in that they sow racial division.  The Capitol riots were a direct threat to their power.  Once people get it into their heads that they can directly challenge the power structures, things can get dangerous quickly.  See the French Revolution for more on this.

As the standard of living in the west declines and the real prospects of its people continue to fall away, things could eventually come to a head.  The needle that they have to thread is narrow.  It feels like they have few choices.  Either they kill the west and/or they innovate sustainable ways to give everyone else what the west has.  I don’t know if there is another choice that will avoid outright collapse.  The third world is coming.   Either way, I think the West is dead.  The extent to which they can manage the decline of the west is the key factor in whether this all goes south in blood and tears or goes quietly into the night.